Who Will Lose the “Game of Thrones?”

Who Will Lose the “Game of Thrones?”

Suzy™’s consumer insights platform predicts the outcome of TV’s biggest hit

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With the final season of "Game of Thrones" set to premiere on April 14, we couldn’t resist having some fun asking questions about the series on Suzy's real-time consumer insights platform. After all, it's safe to conclude at this point that HBO's high fantasy drama is the biggest show on television and social media alike. (Remember when 110,000 fans were willing to stream a block of ice melting just to learn the Season 7 premiere date? )

But it's not ice and fire that gets the internet talking about "GoT" – nor is it the winning combination of Emilia Clarke, Kit Harrington, Sophie Turner, and Peter Dinklage. (Although they're certainly a big part of what makes the show work so well!) Instead, the biggest draw for most fans  is the seemingly endless stream of theories and predictions, as everyone online tries their best to determine which characters will succeed and which will fail.

Of course, failure in the world of Westeros can be pretty high stakes. When Cersei Lannister first told Ned Stark that “When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die," early viewers couldn't have known how right she'd be. In the years since HBO premiered the very first episode of “Game of Thrones” in 2011, upwards of 2,500 different characters have lost their fictional lives over the course of eight seasons.

So what better way to leverage panel of over one million consumers than to gather information on what fans expect will happen next? Specifically, which remaining characters do everyday “Game of Thrones” viewers think are most likely to suffer a grisly fate before the end of the series finale.

What We Found

First, we wanted to get a feel for how many consumers watch “Game of Thrones." More importantly from a business planning perspective, we also wanted to know exactly which subscription services, or other methods, these fans use to watch the show.


Out of 2000 men and women in the United States…

 
N=2000, 50/50M-F, ages 13-75, United States

N=2000, 50/50M-F, ages 13-75, United States

 


Of those who do watch “Game of Thrones:”

 
N=1026, 50/50M-F, ages 13-75, United States

N=1026, 50/50M-F, ages 13-75, United States

 

Finally, we asked a retargeted panel of 500 people to answer the ultimate question: Which “Game of Thrones” characters are mostly likely to die before the series finale?

No surprise to hardcore fans – the overall winner was none other than Queen Cersei Lannister herself, with 37% of respondents saying she probably wouldn’t make it to the end of the series.

Other characters who made it into the top 10 include her brother Jaime Lannister, the Red Woman Melisandre, Lord Varys, Theon Greyjoy, Euron Greyjoy, Grey Worm, Sandor "The Hound" Clegane, Yara Greyjoy, and Jon Snow. Meanwhile, at the very bottom were characters like Samwell Tarly, Podrick Payne, Gendry, and Bran Stark.

Check out the full ranking below:


Which Game of Thrones characters do you think are most likely to die before the end of the season?

Select all that apply.

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N=500,  50/50M-F, ages 13-75, United States

N=500, 50/50M-F, ages 13-75, United States


Other interesting market research data we uncovered:

  • Women were 12% more likely to say that Cersei will die than men were, which is not really all that surprising – she's not exactly an empowered role model for young girls.

  • On the other side of the gender spectrum, men were 9% more likely to say that Lord Varys will die than women were.

  • 18-24 year olds were the most likely demographic to say that Jorah Mormont will die. He is pretty singularly devoted to keeping Daenerys Targaryen alive, so if someone's going to risk their life to save her, it's probably going to be him.  

  • Speaking of whom, only a fifth of survey-takers named Daenerys as a possible casualty –  although her surviving the season doesn't necessarily mean she'll nab the Iron Throne at the end!

  • If given the choice between Brienne of Tarth and Tormund Giantsbane, more respondents were likely to bet odds on the latter ending up dead. We figure Tormund would probably agree.

  • Only ten people thought that none of the characters listed in the survey would die. (In the "Game of Thrones" fandom, we call these kinds of people "sweet summer children.")

We also went back to the 12% of people who cited characters not listed in the initial survey, and asked them to name a few specific examples. Their responses included the Night King, Meera Reed, Davos Seaworth, the Mountain, the entire Night’s Watch, all of Daenerys’s remaining dragons, Ghost the direwolf, and Gilly.

Meanwhile, at least four of the retargeted survey-takers answered with some variation of “everyone,” or "too many characters to name." Honestly, given the show’s track record, that feels like a pretty easy assumption to validate. (Not that we condone that sort of thing!)

Suzy Says

With Suzy’s real-time consumer intelligence platform, you can ask your target audience questions about anything that’s on their mind – from the latest trends in your industry to what they think of their favorite TV show. Get in touch with us to learn more about how Suzy can help your business start getting real-time feedback today.

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Meet Suzy™

A consumer intelligence platform that helps you gather information on what your potential customers care about, so you can make the right decisions for your business, product, or service.

Suzy is a better, faster way to conduct market research at the click of a button – like having a focus group right in your pocket.