State of the Consumer: Decoding Black Friday & Cyber Monday for 2025 Success
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How does Rakuten Advertising stay ahead in e-commerce? Learn how they use consumer insights, personalization, and digital innovation to drive success.
The landscape of holiday shopping has undergone dramatic shifts in recent years, driven by changes in consumer behavior, the evolution of digital platforms, and the continuous advancement of technology. In a recent webinar, Kristen Lyons, EVP of Enterprise Partnerships at Suzy, and Christopher Hahs, SVP of Advanced Analytics & Data Science at Rakuten Advertising, shared fresh data and insights into the trends shaping Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
The Evolution of Consumer Shopping Habits
One of the most striking observations in the discussion was the shift in consumer behavior. While the Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping period has long been characterized by intense discounting and doorbuster deals, the reality has changed. According to the data shared by Suzy, consumer sentiment remained steady from 2023 to 2024, with 61% planning to shop on Black Friday and even more on Cyber Monday. But what consumers planned to do and what they actually did varied.
From a performance perspective, Christopher highlighted that while shoppers stuck to their budgets, they bought more items—especially apparel, footwear, and toys—without increasing their total spend. Consumers were making more strategic purchases, carefully targeting the best deals, but still staying within their planned price ranges. Interestingly, this behavior reflects a broader trend of price-consciousness, likely influenced by the economic environment and the lessons learned from pandemic-era spending.
The Impact of Digital and Mobile Shopping
As digital shopping continues to grow in importance, the convenience of online and mobile purchases has reshaped the way consumers engage with brands. Christopher noted that in 2024, 69% of online sales were driven by mobile devices. This statistic underscores the increasing reliance on digital channels, where personalized experiences and fast, easy transactions are crucial for capturing consumer attention.
The growing comfort with digital shopping is not limited to just browsing and purchasing—it extends to how consumers expect brands to interact with them. Mobile apps, personalized product recommendations, and chatbots are all part of the future of retail, as consumers seek seamless, real-time interactions across their devices. Christopher emphasized that the ability of brands to deliver personalized, goal-based campaigns—thanks to advancements in AI and real-time analytics—will be key to staying competitive in the future.
Key Learning: The Rise of Mobile and Digital Shopping
With 69% of online sales coming from mobile devices in 2024, brands must prioritize seamless, mobile-optimized, and personalized shopping experiences to meet consumers where they are.
The Rise of Influencer and Affiliate Marketing
Another major trend discussed was the rise of influencer and affiliate marketing, particularly within the context of Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Christopher explained how Rakuten Advertising has leveraged its platform to connect brands with influencers, allowing for more personalized and nuanced marketing strategies. The shift from traditional discount-driven campaigns to performance-based influencer marketing has been one of the most significant developments in recent years.
As consumers increasingly look for authentic, relatable endorsements from influencers and creators, brands are adjusting their marketing strategies to meet the demand for personalized, trusted content. Social media platforms, particularly TikTok, have become vital spaces for shopping, blurring the line between entertainment and commerce. This convergence of shopping and social interaction is creating new opportunities for brands to engage with consumers in a more meaningful and personalized way.
Key Learning: Influencer and Affiliate Marketing Growth
Influencer and affiliate marketing are now key drivers of consumer engagement. Brands are moving away from traditional discount-driven campaigns and focusing on performance-based marketing and authentic, personalized content.
The Future of Black Friday and Cyber Monday: Personalization and Agility
Looking ahead, both Kristen and Christopher agreed that the future of Black Friday and Cyber Monday will be driven by continued technological advancements. Personalization will be the key to success, with consumers increasingly expecting tailored offers and experiences. Whether through affiliate marketing, AI-powered personalization, or influencer-driven campaigns, brands will need to stay agile and responsive to meet consumer expectations.
Christopher noted that the evolution of affiliate marketing, with its focus on data-driven, performance-based strategies, is enabling brands to create more strategic and customized campaigns. This shift will allow brands to better meet the unique needs of their customers while adapting quickly to changing market conditions.
Moreover, the growing importance of social shopping and mobile commerce will continue to challenge brands to rethink their approach to Black Friday and Cyber Monday. As consumers spend more time on their phones and engage with digital platforms, brands will need to find innovative ways to connect with them—whether through personalized product recommendations, targeted ads, or influencer partnerships.
Key Learning: Personalization is Key
As consumers expect more personalized experiences, brands must leverage data and AI to deliver tailored offers and create individualized campaigns that resonate with their target audiences.
Preparing for the Future
This discussion highlights the importance of staying ahead of the curve by leveraging data, embracing technological advancements, and continually testing and refining marketing strategies. As consumer expectations evolve, the ability to deliver personalized, relevant experiences across digital platforms will be crucial for success.
As we look toward 2025 and beyond, Black Friday and Cyber Monday will no longer just be about deep discounts. Instead, they will be a time for brands to showcase their ability to innovate, engage with consumers in new ways, and deliver personalized shopping experiences that keep them coming back year-round.
Key Learning: Agility in Marketing and Sales
The ability to quickly adapt to market changes, especially during peak shopping periods like Cyber Week, is crucial. Brands that can adjust pricing, inventory, and marketing strategies in real-time will have a competitive edge.
In conclusion, the future of Black Friday and Cyber Monday is bright, but it will require brands to embrace technology, agility, and personalization to stay competitive in a rapidly changing retail landscape.
For more takeaways and industry insights, be sure to watch the full webinar today!
